Elections have consequences – and sometimes those consequences are more elections. That looks likely to be the case with Michelle Steel’s seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors after her apparent victory over 48th District Congressman Harley Rouda.
While election officials are still counting about 27,000 ballots countywide, on Tuesday the Associated Press called the House race for Steel and Rouda conceded.
Steel was reelected as Second District supervisor in 2018, which leaves two years in her term. Under the county charter, once her seat officially becomes vacant – likely when the next Congress convenes in early January – the county must hold a special election between 56 and 70 days later. That would put the election somewhere from late February to mid-March.
That’s how it unfolded in 2019, when Third District Supervisor Don Wagner won his seat in a special election, and Wagner said a similar timeline is likely for filling Steel’s seat.
Running for an open seat is seen as a potentially easier win than challenging an incumbent, and names of possible candidates are already being batted around. State Sen. John Moorlach, a Republican who lost his seat in last week’s election, has expressed interest, and Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley, a Democrat who just won reelection, said people are already asking her to consider a run.
The special election could end up as a battle between the parties, with Democrats hoping to add a second member to the five-person board.
Democratic Party of Orange County Chairwoman Ada Briceño said in a statement, “Momentum is with us, and we’re already gearing up to flip the Second District Board of Supervisors seat in the upcoming special election.”
On the Republican side, “We will be prepared to fight and hold our 4-1 majority on the Board of Supervisors,” OC GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker said in an email Tuesday.
But Adam Probolsky, who runs an Orange County-based polling firm, said partisan considerations may not have as much influence for a local office such as this.
“Voters don’t necessarily have a clear picture of what county supervisors do, so party’s less of a factor,” he said.
The Second District includes Costa Mesa, Cypress, Huntington Beach, La Palma, Los Alamitos, Newport Beach, Seal Beach, Stanton, the unincorporated area of Rossmoor, and portions of Buena Park and Fountain Valley.
Wagner predicted there will be “no lack of candidates” for the seat, but public enthusiasm may be limited.
“I think there’s a lot of election fatigue,” he said. “Special elections are generally low turnout anyway.”
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